The World Bank projects that the average gold price in the global market will reach US$4,700 per troy ounce in 2026, an increase of 36.6% year-on-year (yoy).
However, the World Bank predicts that the gold price will decline by 8.5% (yoy) in 2027, to an average of US$4,300 per troy ounce.
Despite the decline, the average gold price in 2027 is expected to remain much higher than the period 2010-2025, as shown in the chart.
The World Bank stated that this forecast is overshadowed by uncertainty, as there are many factors that affect the gold price.
"Given the sensitivity of precious metals prices to shifts in global risk sentiment, speculative demand, and macroeconomic conditions, the outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty," said the World Bank in its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report.
According to the World Bank, the gold price could rise higher than predicted if there is an increase in global trade tensions, financial market volatility, prolonged conflicts in the Middle East, or an escalation of geopolitical tensions elsewhere.
However, there are also various factors that could cause the gold price to fall even lower than predicted.
"Downside risks include a tightening of monetary policy in major economies in response to renewed inflationary pressures, raising interest rates beyond baseline assumptions. This would tend to increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, which are non-interest-bearing assets," said the World Bank.
"A sustained easing of geopolitical tensions could also soften safe-haven flows, while a steeper slowdown in central bank purchases—after several years of exceptionally strong accumulation—could remove another important source of price support," they said.