Kompas Research and Development Survey: Anies' Loyal Voters Outnumber Ganjar's and Prabowo's

Based on a survey by Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas), the proportion of loyal voters for presidential candidate Anies Baswedan is higher than that of Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto.

"No less than 55.2% of respondents who claimed to have chosen Anies are considered loyal. They said they would not shift their support to other presidential candidates," said Kompas Litbang researcher Bestian Nainggolan on Wednesday (24/5/2023). Only 44.8% of Anies's voters were less loyal.

Further detailing, Bestian stated that Anies's loyal supporters come from a background of female gender (55.2%), with the largest age group in the 35-49 year range (32.4%), a significant proportion of higher education (22.2%), based in the middle (46.1%) and upper-middle (24.5%) economic groups.

Meanwhile, in terms of political choices, loyal Anies voters mostly claimed to be voters of the Nasdem Party (22.1%), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) (10.1%), and the Democratic Party (8.8%).

"Based on the background of Anies's loyal voters, it appears that his loyal supporters are segmented into specific identity groups, concentrated in the middle and upper social elite groups with a political background that is starting to be segmented into his supporting parties," said Bestian.

On the other hand, the Litbang Kompas survey shows that Ganjar's loyal supporters amount to 53.5% and Prabowo's to 53.4%. The supporters considered less loyal were 46.5% for Ganjar and 46.6% for Prabowo.

"Unlike Anies, Ganjar and Prabowo have opposite characteristics of support; both figures are supported by more men," said Bestian.

Like Ganjar, 54.3% of his voters are male. Then, Prabowo's male voters are relatively larger at 61.4%.

In terms of education level and socioeconomic class, loyal voters of Ganjar and Prabowo mostly come from the middle to lower social groups.

It was recorded that 59.9% of Prabowo's supporters and 53.9% of Ganjar's supporters come from those with basic education. "A similar condition also occurs in the economic group, which places the loyal supporters of both presidential candidates in the lower-middle economic group," said Bestian.

Based on political choice, Ganjar's main supporters are generally PDI-P voters (53.1%), although also supported by PKB voters (7%), and the Gerindra Party (5.6%).

Meanwhile, Prabowo's loyal supporters are mostly from the Gerindra Party (43.4%), Golkar (10.9%), PDI-P (11.6%), and the Democratic Party (9.3%).

The survey was conducted on 1,200 respondents from 38 Indonesian provinces during the period of April 29 - May 10, 2023. The survey used a stratified systematic sampling method, with a 95% confidence level.

The margin of error for this survey is approximately 2.83% under simple random sampling conditions, so errors outside of sample selection are possible.