SMRC Survey: Only Six Parties Likely to Enter Parliament

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Cindy Mutia Annur 03/05/2023 17:30 WIB

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According to a survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), only six political parties are likely to secure seats in parliament in the 2024 General Election.

Political Party Electability According to the SMRC Survey (April 2023)

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SMRC Survey: Only Six Parties Likely to Enter Parliament

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Political Party Electability According to the SMRC Survey (April 2023)

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According to a survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), only six political parties are likely to enter parliament in the 2024 General Election.

Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning the General Election (UU Pemilu) sets the parliamentary threshold at 4%.

This means that only political parties obtaining at least 4% of the vote are entitled to seats in parliament.

"We asked respondents, if the election of DPR members were held now, which party or (figure) from which party would you choose," said SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani, as reported by *Katadata.co.id*, Tuesday (2/5/2023).

The results show that, from the total respondent answers, six political parties met the threshold:

1. Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle/PDIP (19%)
2. Gerindra Party (12.4%)
3. Golkar Party (9.3%)
4. Democratic Party (6.5%)
5. Prosperous Justice Party/PKS (6.1%)
6. National Awakening Party/PKB (5.5%).

Then there are three parliamentary parties that received votes below the threshold, namely the National Democrat Party/Nasdem (3.6%), the National Mandate Party/PAN (1.3%), and the United Development Party/PPP (1.2%).

Meanwhile, none of the non-parliamentary parties managed to meet the threshold.

In fact, according to the SMRC survey results, the only non-parliamentary party that obtained votes above 1% is the Perindo Party, while the other parties obtained less than 1%, as shown in the graph above.

This SMRC survey was conducted through telephone interviews with 1,021 respondents aged 17 years and older or already married and owning a mobile phone from April 25-28, 2023.

Sample selection was conducted using the random digit dialing (RDD) method, which is a technique of selecting samples through the random generation of telephone numbers, followed by validation and screening.

The margin of error for this survey is estimated at around 3.1%, with a 95% confidence level assuming simple random sampling.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."