World Bank Projects Coal Price Decline Through 2024

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Adi Ahdiat 02/05/2023 18:13 WIB

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The World Bank projects a 42% decline in coal prices in 2023, followed by a further 23% drop in 2024. However, prices will still remain higher than the average price during the 2015-2019 period.

World Bank Projection of Average Coal Prices (2020-2024)

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World Bank Projects Coal Price Decline Through 2024

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World Bank Projection of Average Coal Prices (2020-2024)

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In its April 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook report, the World Bank projects that coal prices will decline through 2024.

The average price of Australian coal, a benchmark in the global market (Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg), is expected to reach USD 200 per ton this year and USD 155 per ton next year.

"Coal prices are projected to fall by 42% in 2023 and a further 23% in 2024. However, prices will remain well above the 2015-2019 average," the World Bank stated.

The World Bank predicts that global coal demand will weaken starting in 2023, influenced by carbon pricing policies and lower natural gas prices in several major consuming countries, particularly the United States and Europe.

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has strengthened incentives to shift away from fossil fuels, both through increased renewable energy production and reduced energy consumption, particularly in the United States and Europe," the World Bank said.

"This leads to the expectation that US and European coal consumption will continue to decline," it continued.

The World Bank also mentioned that coal prices could fall further if the global economic slowdown is worse than expected, or if China, the largest consumer, reduces its demand.

On the other hand, several conditions could potentially boost coal prices this year.

"In the short term, if China's economic recovery is stronger than expected, it will increase its demand for imported coal for industry and power generation," said the World Bank.

"A decline in production, or a reduction in coal exports from Russia, could also increase prices," it added.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."