Which Survey Institute is the Most Accurate?

The Jakarta Provincial Election Commission (KPUD DKI Jakarta) has completed the vote count (real count) in the DKI Jakarta gubernatorial election held on February 15th. The results show that the pair Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok)-Djarot Saiful Hidayat obtained 42.96 percent of the vote, while Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno came in second with 39.97 percent. The pair Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni trailed with 17.07 percent.

Before the KPUD DKI Jakarta finalized its count, various survey institutions had released quick counts. The KPUD DKI Jakarta's real count did not differ significantly from these quick counts. The Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) was the institution conducting the quick count with the smallest difference from the KPUD DKI Jakarta's calculation.

The results of the quick count conducted by this institution, led by Denny JA, differed by only 0.17 percent from the KPUD DKI Jakarta's count. In the quick count, LSI also placed Ahok-Djarot in the lead with 43.22 percent of the vote. Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas) was the next most accurate institution, with a difference of 0.2 percent from the real count, and also placing the Ahok-Djarot pair in first place with 42.87 percent of the vote.