Political Indicator Survey: A Significant Portion of Swing Voters Remain Undecided in the 2024 Presidential Election

A number of swing voters or voters may still change their support for presidential candidates in the 2024 Presidential Election. This segment of voters can be utilized by prospective presidential candidates to persuade voters and garner support.

This is reflected in the results of a survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia titled "Swing Voters, Socialization Effects, and Electoral Trends Ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election," September 2023 edition.

The survey found that 30.5% of total respondents admitted that they might still change their choice of presidential candidate.

This sizable segment consists of 5.9% of respondents who stated a very high likelihood of changing their preferred presidential candidate and 24.6% who said the likelihood was quite high.

However, the percentage of respondents who are unlikely to change their support for their favorite presidential candidate is higher, at 67.9%.

This comprises 46.6% of respondents who said it was unlikely they would change their choice and 21.3% who stated it was very unlikely or almost impossible to do so.

Indikator Politik mentions that several factors can influence public support for prospective presidential candidates. One of them is the socialization factor.

"Various factors influence public support, including socialization factors and various issues that color the electoral dynamics leading up to the presidential candidacy," wrote Indikator Politik in its report.

So far, only Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar have officially declared themselves as a candidate pair to run in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Meanwhile, the other two prospective presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, have yet to announce their running mates.

This survey involved 1,200 respondents across Indonesia. An oversample was conducted in 10 provinces: North Sumatra, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, and Banten, each with 400 respondents.

South Sumatra and Lampung had an additional 350 respondents each, while Jambi and Bangka Belitung had 300 respondents each. The total sample size was 4,090 respondents.

Data collection was conducted from August 25 to September 3, 2023, using a face-to-face interview method by trained interviewers. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%, with a 95% confidence level.