Kompas Research and Development: Many Women Still Undecided on Presidential Candidate

Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas) compiled the electability of presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs in a simulation of the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres 2024) based on a survey conducted in early December 2023.

The results show that female voters favored candidate pair number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, with a 37.2% electability rate among female respondents.

Meanwhile, candidate pair number 1, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, was chosen by 16.9% of female respondents, and candidate pair number 3, Ganjar Prabowo-Mahfud MD, by 14.8%.

However, a significant 31.1% of female respondents remained undecided.

Among male voters, candidate pair number 2, Prabowo-Gibran, also had the highest electability at 41.4%, followed by Anies-Muhaimin at 16.5% and Ganjar-Mahfud at 15.8%.

The percentage of undecided male respondents was 26.3%, considerably lower than that of female respondents.

Litbang Kompas stated that Prabowo's increased electability among women was influenced by the configuration of candidate pairs officially approved by the General Election Commission (KPU). In other words, the electability changed after the vice-presidential candidates were announced.

However, Litbang Kompas noted that the high proportion of undecided female voters (31.1%) requires attention from all presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs and their supporting parties.

"The number of undecided female voters is higher than that of male voters (54.2% vs. 45.8%)," said Dewi Pancawati from Litbang Kompas in her report on Friday, December 15, 2023.

Litbang Kompas also found that 43% of respondents stated they could still change their minds (swing voters), while 40.9% were loyal voters (strong voters) who had firmly decided on their choice.

According to Litbang Kompas, the Prabowo-Gibran pair had the strongest loyal voter base. Half of the loyal female voters supported candidate pair number 2. This was followed by loyal voters for Anies-Muhaimin (21.5%) and Ganjar-Mahfud (18.3%).

This face-to-face survey involved 1,364 randomly selected respondents using a stratified systematic sampling method across 38 provinces in Indonesia from November 29 to December 4, 2023.

The margin of error is approximately 2.65% at a 95% confidence level under simple random sampling conditions. However, errors outside of sample selection are possible.