ASEAN Economic Growth Projections According to the World Bank: How is Indonesia Performing?

The World Bank has released its latest economic growth projections, or real GDP, for several countries in its *Global Economic Prospects* report on Tuesday (January 9, 2024).

Indonesia is estimated to achieve an average annual economic growth of 5% in 2023—a slight increase of 0.1% from the June 2023 projection. This estimate is 3 percentage points lower than the previous growth of 5.3% in 2022.

The projected economic growth for Indonesia in 2024 is 4.9%. This figure is the same as the projection for 2025.

In the ASEAN region, only Indonesia's economic growth is projected to slow down in 2024. Other countries are projected to increase in the range of 0.2-0.4% in 2024.

(Also read: World Bank Projection: Indonesia's Economic Growth to Slow in 2024)

Cambodia, for example, is estimated to achieve annual growth of 5.4% in 2023. The World Bank projects this country's growth to increase by 0.4 percentage points in 2024, reaching 5.8%. In 2025, Cambodia is projected to have growth of 6.1%—the highest projection in the ASEAN region.

Similarly, Timor Leste's growth is estimated at 2.4% in 2023. The projection is 3.5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.

However, for the 2025 projection, other countries are also predicted to slow down, namely Malaysia and Thailand.

Malaysia is estimated to have growth of 3.9% in 2023. It is further projected to reach 4.3% in 2024. However, its growth is predicted to decrease to 4.2% in 2025.

Meanwhile, Thailand is estimated at 2.5% in 2023. The World Bank projects its growth to be 3.2% in 2024, but slightly down to 3.1% in 2025.

Myanmar has the lowest growth, at 1% in 2023 and a projected 2% for 2024. The World Bank has not yet published its growth projection for Myanmar in 2025.

The World Bank estimates global growth to be 2.6% in 2023. This is 0.5 percentage points higher than the June estimate, due to better-than-expected growth in the United States.

Global growth is expected to slow further to 2.4% in 2024. The World Bank attributes this slowdown to a weakening labor market, reduced savings buffers, diminished pent-up demand for services, the lagged impact of monetary tightening, and fiscal consolidation.

"Over 2020-24, the forecast shows the weakest start to a decade of global growth since the 1990s—another period marked by geopolitical tensions and global recession," the World Bank wrote in its report.

Global growth is projected to increase to 2.7% in 2025, as inflation continues to slow, interest rates decline, and trade growth strengthens.

(Also read: IMF Projection: Bright Outlook for ASEAN Economic Growth in 2024)