IMF and World Bank Predict Indonesian Economy Stable in 2026

Indonesia's economic growth rate in 2026 is projected to be stable or unchanged compared to 2025, with a potential for a slight strengthening.

This is evident from the projections of several international institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

In its Article IV Mission to Indonesia report, November 2025 edition, the IMF predicts Indonesia's economic growth will reach 5% in 2025, then rise to 5.1% in 2026.

"Indonesia remains a bright spot on the global scale, with strong economic growth amidst a challenging external environment," the IMF stated in its report.

The World Bank expressed a similar sentiment in its Indonesia Economic Prospects report, December 2025 edition. They estimate Indonesia's economy will grow stably at 5% in both 2025 and 2026.

"Indonesia's economy remains resilient amidst uncertain global conditions," the World Bank said in its report.

Despite the bright prospects, the World Bank believes Indonesia faces various challenges, one of which is the slowdown in private consumption.

"Private consumption—which was previously a key driver of growth—has declined, making the resilience of Indonesia's economic growth increasingly dependent on strengthening household purchasing power," the World Bank stated.

There are also challenges related to job quality and public welfare.

"Although labor absorption increased by 1.3 percent from August 2024 to August 2025, this increase is still dominated by low-wage sectors, such as low value-added services and agriculture," the World Bank said.

"While poverty rates continue to decline, the number of households feeling poor has actually increased. Economic insecurity is more pronounced among the middle class, given high income volatility and real wage dynamics," it added.

In addition, the IMF also believes there are various global factors that risk hindering Indonesia's economic growth.

"Rising trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty, and global financial market volatility remain key external risks," the IMF stated.