Indonesia's Rice Import Trend Since Jokowi's Presidency: Will It Increase in 2023?

The unrelenting El Niño phenomenon has hampered domestic rice production throughout 2023. The impact of El Niño is even predicted to last until next year.

This situation has also led several countries to restrict food exports, including India, the world's leading rice producer.

The domino effect of this has been a surge in domestic rice prices. The government is being urged to take action to curb rice prices, including through imports and distributing the imported rice to the public.

According to *Katadata*, Perum Bulog (Indonesia's state-owned food logistics agency) had imported 1.6 million tons of rice by early September 2023. Another 400,000 tons are currently being shipped and are expected to arrive in Indonesia in November 2023.

"Imports are complete. (The country of origin) is confidential; what's important is that it's finished. This means we won't be importing any more," said Bulog's CEO, Budi Waseso, at a Bulog warehouse in Kelapa Gading, Jakarta, on Monday (September 11, 2023).

The man known as Buwas hinted that the origin of the imported rice is similar to previous imports, namely Thailand and Vietnam.

With these imports, Buwas aims to bring the price of medium-grain rice down to Rp 11,000 per kilogram (kg). The National Food Agency (NFA) reported that the national average price of medium-grain rice on Monday, September 11, 2023, reached Rp 12,760 per kg.

He stated that a rapid decrease in market rice prices is unlikely, as market traders have purchased their rice stocks at high prices.

"It's impossible for market traders to sell their rice cheaply; they'd lose money," said Buwas.

Buwas stated that Bulog's strategy to lower rice prices involves distributing aid rice to 21.3 million beneficiary families (KPM). This aid rice will continue to be distributed at 10 kg per month from September to November 2023.

This will result in the government distributing 639,000 tons of aid rice to consumers by the end of the last quarter of 2023.

Aside from this food security strategy, what is the trend of imports over the past 7 years?

According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), a year after President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) took office, in 2015, Indonesia imported 861,600 tons of rice. In that year, Vietnam was the largest supplier, providing 509,370 tons.

Import volume then increased again to 1.28 million tons in 2016. Thailand and Vietnam were the largest players, with total imports exceeding 500,000 tons.

Imports decreased drastically to 305,270 tons in 2017 but soared to 2.25 million tons in 2018—the highest in the last 7 years.

The latest annual data, from 2022, shows imports were relatively low at 429,200 tons. Last year, India was the largest importer, with a volume of 178,530 tons.

BPS has not yet compiled the total imports for this year, but considering the interim data from Perum Bulog above, it is likely that import volume will surge compared to 2022.