The electability of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates numbered one, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar (also known as Cak Imin), has been steadily increasing.
According to the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA, in September 2023, Anies-Cak Imin's electability was only 15%. This rose to 17.2% in October 2023 and further strengthened to 20.3% in November 2023.
LSI Denny JA researcher Adjie Al Faraby stated that one factor boosting Anies-Cak Imin's electability is the significant number of voters switching from Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD.
Their survey found that of all voters leaving Ganjar-Mahfud, 40.2% shifted their support to Anies-Cak Imin.
Another 50.44% switched to Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, while the remaining 9.4% were undecided or did not answer.
"(Supporters) leaving Ganjar-Mahfud tend to largely shift to Anies-Cak Imin, although a greater number switched to Prabowo-Gibran," said Adjie Al Faraby, LSI Denny JA researcher, in an online press conference on the LSI Denny JA YouTube account, Monday (20/11/2023).
Adjie continued, explaining that another reason for the rise in Anies-Cak Imin's electability is the increase in support from the educated voter segment, including students and graduates with Bachelor's and Master's degrees.
In September 2023, support for Anies-Cak Imin from those with a D3 degree or higher was only 27.8%. This increased to 31.9% in October 2023 and 45.5% in November 2023.
"Although this educated voter segment is small, representing only about 10 to 15%, there is a noticeable increase in support for Anies-Cak Imin among them," said Adjie.
This survey was conducted from November 6-13, 2023, involving 1,200 respondents across Indonesia. Respondent selection used multi-stage random sampling.
Data collection employed face-to-face interviews using questionnaires, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.