Called the "Jokowi Effect," Prabowo-Gibran Leads in East Java in ARCI Survey

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Erlina Fury Santika 02/11/2023 15:08 WIB

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Prabowo-Gibran presidential and vice-presidential ticket enjoys the highest electability rating in East Java, surpassing Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies-Imin, according to an ARCI survey.

Electability of Prospective Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates in a Three-Name Simulation Survey by ARCI in East Java (October 27, 2023)

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Called the "Jokowi Effect," Prabowo-Gibran Leads in East Java in ARCI Survey

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Electability of Prospective Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates in a Three-Name Simulation Survey by ARCI in East Java (October 27, 2023)

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Accurate Research and Consulting Indonesia (ARCI) conducted a survey on the electability of three prospective presidential and vice-presidential candidates in a simulation of the 2024 Presidential Election in East Java.

The three simulated candidates are those who have registered with the General Election Commission (KPU): Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka; Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD; and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.

The results show that Prabowo-Gibran has the highest electability among the others, with 40.1% of the total respondents.

Ganjar-Mahfud is in second place with 35.9%, followed by Anies-Imin with 22.2%. 1.8% of respondents answered "don't know/didn't answer" (TT/TJ).

Quoting Antara, ARCI Director Baihaki Sirajt stated that Prabowo-Gibran's high electability is influenced by the "Jokowi Effect," namely the influx of votes from supporters of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the local area.

Furthermore, he added, East Java has been a stronghold for Jokowi's victories in his two presidential candidacies, namely the 2014 and 2019 Presidential Elections.

"One of the factors is that Jokowi's loyalists, who previously largely supported Ganjar, are now starting to shift to Prabowo," he said in a written statement.

(Read also: This is the Map of the 2024 Election Coalition after PSI Supports Prabowo-Gibran)

In addition to the "Jokowi Effect," the electability of the pair nominated by the United Indonesia Coalition (KIM) is also influenced by the shift in support from those previously leaning towards Ganjar, especially in the Mataraman region.

Baihaki mentioned that this migration of support is based on Gibran's presence as Prabowo's running mate.

He stated that 33.7% of PDI-P voters lean towards Prabowo-Gibran, while 66.3% choose Ganjar-Mahfud. The "AMIN" pair received no support from PDI-P based voters.

"The factors of Gibran and Jokowi influence PDI-P voters in East Java who have switched from Ganjar to Prabowo. So, even if the party (respondent) still chooses PDI-P, their presidential candidate is Prabowo," he said.

The survey used a multistage random sampling method with 1,200 respondents proportionally distributed across 38 regencies/cities in East Java, with a margin of error of 2.8% and a confidence level of 95%. The survey was conducted from October 22-27, 2023.

(Read also: Not Gibran, This is the Most Suitable Vice Presidential Candidate for Prabowo According to LSI Survey)

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."