Many Critical Voters Have Yet to Declare Their Preferred Political Party

A Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) survey shows that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan or PDIP) emerged as the preferred political party among critical voters in mid-April 2023, accounting for 16.1% of respondents.

However, this proportion is significantly lower than those who haven't yet declared a preference or chosen a political party in the SMRC's general election simulation, reaching 31.2% of respondents.

Analyzing the trend since April 2022, the proportion of voters choosing "don't know" or "don't answer" (DK/DA) was quite high at 43.8%. Subsequently, respondents choosing DK/DA decreased, reaching 29.4% by August 2022.

However, in September 2022, the figure rose again to 31.4%. The highest proportion of DK/DA respondents in early 2023 occurred in February, reaching 33.7%.

This group represents an attractive niche for political parties. In every simulation, their proportion tends to be substantial, even exceeding support for specific political parties, such as the PDIP.

"Every party still has the opportunity to increase its vote share because there are still many critical voters who have not yet decided (31.2%)," wrote SMRC in its findings on Tuesday, April 25, 2023.

SMRC identifies critical voters as an important segment. In their calculations, critical voters constitute 80% of the total voting population and tend to be from higher socioeconomic strata.

"Critical voters are generally not easily swayed or influenced, and conversely, can influence other voters," wrote the SMRC research team.

The research team notes that voters owning a telephone or smartphone are indicative of the critical voter group. They tend to have greater access to socio-political information compared to those without gadgets.

"And therefore, they are critical in assessing various issues," stated the research team.

The survey's target population comprises Indonesian citizens aged 17 and above, or those who are married and own a telephone or smartphone.

Sample selection was conducted using random digit dialing (RDD). RDD is a technique for selecting samples through the random generation of telephone numbers.

Using RDD, a sample of 831 respondents was selected through the random generation of telephone numbers, validation, and screening.

The survey's margin of error is estimated at 3.5% at a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

Interviews with respondents were conducted by telephone by trained interviewers. The latest survey was conducted on April 18-19, 2023.