October 2023 LSI Presidential Candidate Voice Tracking: Prabowo Leads

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) compiled the trends in the electability or votes of three prospective presidential candidates (bacapres) for the 2024 Presidential Election. The three names tested in the simulation were Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan.

In the LSI telephone survey (surtel) from July 2022 to October 2023, the votes for these three bacapres fluctuated.

Prabowo Subianto, who received 24.6% of the total respondents (the lowest) in July 2022, steadily climbed. Now, in October 2023, his support is the highest among the other bacapres, at 35.8%. Prabowo's lowest support was in the January 2023 surtel, at only 23.2%.

(Read also: [Does the Public Agree with Gibran as Prabowo's Prospective Vice Presidential Candidate?](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/10/23/apakah-publik-setuju-gibran-jadi-bakal-cawapres-prabowo))

Meanwhile, Ganjar Pranowo received a fairly high proportion in July 2023, at 29.6%. Although he once reached the highest figure, either for himself or when compared with other candidates, at 36.3% in January 2023, Ganjar is now in second place in October 2023, with 30.9%.

Next, Anies Baswedan, who received 28.6% in July 2022, achieved his highest score in this surtel. However, his vote share often decreased, now obtaining 19.7% in October 2023. This October figure is the lowest Anies has received during the eight LSI surtels.

Meanwhile, some respondents answered "don't know/don't answer" (TT/TJ), as shown in the graph.

"Prabowo Subianto was chosen the most at 35.8%, followed by Ganjar Pranowo at 30.9%, and Anies Baswedan at 19.7%. Approximately 13.6% have not yet indicated their choice," wrote LSI on the results of the October 2023 surtel in its research report.

This survey involved 1,229 respondents aged 17 years and older or who were married and owned a telephone/cell phone, approximately 83% of the total national population.

The sample was taken using a random telephone number generation technique or *random digit dialing* (RDD), validated and screened.

Data collection was conducted on October 16-18, 2023, using telephone interview methods. This survey has a margin of error of approximately 2.9% and a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

(Read also: [LSI Survey: Prabowo and Ganjar Considered the Most Supported Presidential Candidates by Jokowi](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/10/23/survei-lsi-prabowo-dan-ganjar-dinilai-sebagai-capres-yang-paling-didukung-jokowi))