Falling Stockpiles, Rising Global Oil Prices Throughout Q3 2023

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Adi Ahdiat 04/10/2023 11:05 WIB

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Global oil prices rose throughout the third quarter of 2023, driven by declining inventories due to Saudi Arabia's production cuts.

Average Monthly Global Oil Prices (January 2020 - September 2023)

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Falling Stockpiles, Rising Global Oil Prices Throughout Q3 2023

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Average Monthly Global Oil Prices (January 2020 - September 2023)

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Global oil prices rose throughout the third quarter of 2023, after a downward trend in the first half of the year.

According to World Bank data, the average Brent crude oil price in September 2023 reached US$94 per barrel. This represents a 9% increase compared to August 2023 (month-on-month/mom), and a 13% increase compared to the beginning of the year (year-to-date/ytd).

During the same period, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices also rose by 10% (mom) and increased by 14% (ytd) to US$89.58 per barrel.

In September 2023, global oil prices reached their highest point since the beginning of the year, as shown in the graph above.

This also triggered an increase in the price of non-subsidized fuel in Indonesia, such as Pertamax, Pertamax Green, Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex.

The increase in global oil prices in the third quarter of 2023 was partly influenced by reduced supply from Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has been cutting its oil production since July 2023. Initially, this production cut was scheduled to end in September 2023. However, they later announced that the cuts would continue until the end of the year.

"The oil production cuts that came into effect in July 2023 will continue for the next three months, until the end of December 2023," said the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy in its official statement released by Arab News on Tuesday (September 5, 2023).

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Saudi Arabia's policy has resulted in a decrease in global oil stocks and will influence oil price volatility for several months to come.

"Saudi Arabia announced it will continue cutting oil production by 1 million barrels per day until the end of this year. According to our estimates, with this cut, global oil stocks will fall by 0.2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2023," said the EIA in its September 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

"We forecast the average Brent crude oil price to reach US$93 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023. This price forecast is supported by the decline in global oil stocks," said the EIA.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."