Indonesia's Electricity Energy Mix Projection 2025-2034: Coal Remains Dominant

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Adi Ahdiat 04/07/2025 12:20 WIB

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According to the latest RUPTL, coal will continue to dominate Indonesia's electricity energy mix until 2034, even under accelerated energy transition scenarios.

Indonesia's Electricity Generation Energy Mix Projection (2025-2034)

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Indonesia's Electricity Generation Energy Mix Projection (2025-2034)

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Coal will remain dominant in Indonesia's electricity energy mix until 2034, even under an accelerated energy transition scenario.

This projection is recorded in the latest Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) document, published by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in June 2025.

Referring to the document, the Indonesian government currently has a scenario called Accelerated Renewable Energy Development (ARED).

ARED contains targets for reducing fossil fuels and adding new and renewable energy in Indonesia's electricity energy mix more progressively. However, coal still has the largest share.

Based on the ARED scenario, in 2034, new and renewable energy will contribute 34.3% to national electricity generation.

Then coal, although reduced compared to previous years, is predicted to still have a share of 46.8% in 2034.

According to Pri Agung Rakhmanto, Founder & Advisor of the Reforminer Institute, this shows the vital role of coal in Indonesia's electricity sector.

"The RUPTL scenario still shows an increase in the capacity of fossil fuel-based power plants, including the continued construction of coal-fired power plants according to project planning, both ongoing and committed," said Pri in his opinion article on Katadata.co.id (10/6/2025).

"This is inseparable from the current real conditions of the national electricity system, where during the 2020-2024 period, the role of fossil energy, especially coal, is still important," he said.

Here is a breakdown of the projected Indonesian electricity generation energy mix for the period 2025-2034, based on the ARED scenario in the latest RUPTL:

Year 2025

Coal: 64.2%
Gas: 15.7%
Oil-based Fuels: 3.9%
New and Renewable Energy: 15.9%
Imports: 0.4%

Year 2026

Coal: 63.2%
Gas: 17.4%
Oil-based Fuels: 2.7%
New and Renewable Energy: 16.4%
Imports: 0.3%

Year 2027

Coal: 62%
Gas: 19.2%
Oil-based Fuels: 1.1%
New and Renewable Energy: 17.3%
Imports: 0.3%

Year 2028

Coal: 60.7%
Gas: 19.4%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.5%
New and Renewable Energy: 19.1%
Imports: 0.3%

Year 2029

Coal: 58.9%
Gas: 20.8%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.4%
New and Renewable Energy: 19.7%
Imports: 0.3%

Year 2030

Coal: 56.8%
Gas: 21.6%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.3%
New and Renewable Energy: 21%
Imports: 0.3%

Year 2031

Coal: 53.4%
Gas: 20%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.3%
New and Renewable Energy: 26.1%
Imports: 0.2%

Year 2032

Coal: 51.4%
Gas: 19.1%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.3%
New and Renewable Energy: 29%
Imports: 0.2%

Year 2033

Coal: 49.5%
Gas: 17.6%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.2%
New and Renewable Energy: 32.5%
Imports: 0.2%

Year 2034

Coal: 46.8%
Gas: 18.4%
Oil-based Fuels: 0.2%
New and Renewable Energy: 34.3%
Imports: 0.2%

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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