Poltracking Survey: Anies Baswedan's Electability Leads in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java

A recent Poltracking Indonesia survey shows Anies Baswedan having the highest electability as a presidential candidate (capres) in three out of the five provinces surveyed. Anies leads in DKI Jakarta, Banten, and West Java.

In a simulation of the three strongest presidential candidates in DKI Jakarta, Anies Baswedan's electability is 49.6%, Ganjar Pranowo's is 27.5%, and Prabowo Subianto's is 15.7%. In Banten, in a simulation of the three strongest presidential candidates, Anies Baswedan's electability is 47.6%, Prabowo Subianto's is 28.5%, and Ganjar Pranowo's is 16.1%. Then in West Java, in a simulation of the three strongest presidential candidates, Anies Baswedan's electability is 36.3%, Prabowo Subianto's is 30.8%, and Ganjar Pranowo's is 18.7%.

Meanwhile, in Central Java, in a simulation of the three strongest presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo's electability is 71.4%, Prabowo Subianto's is 10.8%, and Anies Baswedan's is 9.0%. In East Java, in a simulation of the three strongest presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo's electability is 36.1%, Prabowo Subianto's is 25.5%, and Anies Baswedan's is 19.6%.

The electability figures show that in Jakarta and Banten, Anies Baswedan's electability is relatively higher, exceeding other candidates by more than 19%. Meanwhile, in West Java, Anies Baswedan is relatively competitive, only 6% behind Prabowo Subianto.

Furthermore, in East Java, Ganjar Pranowo is 11% ahead of Prabowo Subianto. In Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo's electability is significantly higher, exceeding other candidates by 60%.

Poltracking Indonesia conducted five provincial surveys on Java Island (DKI Jakarta, Banten, West Java, Central Java, & East Java) from November 26th to December 2nd, 2022, using a stratified multistage random sampling method. The sample size in each province was 1000 respondents (DKI Jakarta 1000 respondents, Banten 1000 respondents, West Java 1000 respondents, Central Java 1000 respondents, & East Java 1000 respondents) with a margin of error of +/- 3.1% in each province and a 95% confidence level.

(read: [Survey Indicator: Anies' Electability Rises After Nasdem Presidential Candidate Declaration])