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IMF Predicts Weakening ASEAN Economies, Except Thailand

Adi Ahdiat 31/01/2023 16:00 WIB

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The IMF projects that the economies of several ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, will slow down in 2023. However, Thailand's economic growth is forecast to strengthen s

ASEAN Countries' Economic Growth Projections by the IMF (2022-2023)

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IMF Predicts Weakening ASEAN Economies, Except Thailand

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ASEAN Countries' Economic Growth Projections by the IMF (2022-2023)

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In its January 2023 edition of the *World Economic Outlook* (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Indonesia's economic growth will slow from 5.3% in 2022 to 4.8% in 2023.

The IMF also predicted an economic slowdown in neighboring countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines, while Thailand's growth is forecast to strengthen, as shown in the graph.

However, projections for other ASEAN countries—Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Brunei Darussalam, and Timor-Leste—are not available.

The IMF did not detail the reasons why the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines might weaken in 2023, while Thailand's strengthens.

Generally, the IMF only explained that global economic growth this year risks being hampered by the influence of China, which is feared to be unable to fully recover from the pandemic.

"With still low population immunity and inadequate hospital capacity, especially outside major cities, health issues could hamper China's recovery," the IMF stated in the January 2023 WEO.

"This could affect various parts of the world, especially due to decreased demand and supply chain issues," it continued.

Decreased demand from China could also impact Indonesia's export performance, given China's position as its largest non-oil and gas export market.

Throughout 2022, Indonesia exported US$63.5 billion worth of non-oil and gas commodities to China, far exceeding exports to other countries.

Besides the influence of China, the IMF assesses that global economic growth in 2023 risks being hampered by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, debt pressure in many countries, inflation rates, and the expansion of geopolitical fragmentation.

"International sanctions against Russia have divided the world into blocs and intensified pre-existing geopolitical tensions, such as trade disputes between the United States and China," said the IMF.

"Fragmentation could increase, resulting in increased restrictions on the movement of capital, workers, international payments, and hindering multilateral cooperation in the provision of commodities in the global market," it continued.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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IMF Predicts Weakening ASEAN Economies, Except Thailand

IMF Predicts Weakening ASEAN Economies, Except Thailand

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IMF Predicts Weakening ASEAN Economies, Except Thailand

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