Indonesia's Low-Carbon Energy Mix Scenario to 2030

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Adi Ahdiat 14/09/2023 16:48 WIB

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In a low-carbon scenario, the Indonesian government aims to reduce the share of coal and increase the share of new and renewable energy (NRE) in the national energy mix.

Indonesia's Energy Mix Projection in the Low-Carbon Scenario of the RUPTL 2021-2030

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Indonesia's Energy Mix Projection in the Low-Carbon Scenario of the RUPTL 2021-2030

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The Indonesian government has incorporated a low-carbon energy scenario into the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2021-2030.

This scenario targets a reduction in the proportion of fossil fuels and an increase in the share of new and renewable energy (NRE) in the national energy mix.

Based on this scenario, the proportion of coal in the national energy mix is projected to decrease from 66.98% (2021) to 59.37% (2030).

The proportion of natural gas is projected to fall from 16.58% (2021) to 15.44% (2030), and the proportion of oil will decrease from 3.52% (2021) to 0.40% (2030).

On the other hand, the share of new and renewable energy (NRE) is targeted to increase from 12.6% (2021) to 24.8% (2030).

Despite the percentage decrease, coal will remain Indonesia's primary energy source for the next decade.

In terms of volume, under this low-carbon scenario, national coal demand is projected to increase from 111 million tons (2021) to 153 million tons (2030).

This scenario also predicts an increase in Indonesia's greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, from 259.1 million tons of CO2 (2021) to 334.6 million tons of CO2 (2030).

Although emissions are still projected to rise, the low-carbon scenario has lower emissions compared to the "optimal scenario" and the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario developed by the government.

In the optimal scenario, the NRE mix increases to 23% in 2025, but coal usage remains high at around 64%. This scenario is projected to produce 363 million tons of GHG emissions in 2030.

Meanwhile, in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, there is no increase in NRE or low-carbon technologies. This scenario is projected to produce 433 million tons of GHG emissions in 2030.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Indonesia's Low-Carbon Energy Mix Scenario to 2030

Indonesia's Low-Carbon Energy Mix Scenario to 2030

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