Central Java Gubernatorial Election Simulation: Kaesang Receives the Most Votes

According to an Indikator survey, Kaesang Pangarep received the most votes in a simulated election for the Governor of Central Java in June 2024.

In a semi-open simulation with 20 candidate names, the youngest son of President Joko Widodo garnered 17.7% of respondent votes.

Following him is the Central Java Police Chief, Inspector General Pol. Ahmad Luthfi, who was chosen by 15.6% of respondents.

However, according to Indikator Executive Director Burhanuddin Muhtadi, the vote share of Kaesang and Ahmad Luthfi is still within the margin of error.

"So we don't actually know who is ahead, whether Kaesang or Luthfi. Even though Kaesang is ranked first absolutely, it's not dominant," said Burhanuddin in an online presentation of his survey on Sunday (7/7/2024).

In third place in this survey is the former Deputy Governor of Central Java (2018-2023), Taj Yasin, who received 6% of respondent votes.

Next are Bambang Wuryanto with 6% of the vote, Dico Ganinduto with 5.6%, and Raffi Ahmad with 4.4%.

Meanwhile, other figures received less than 4% of the vote, as shown in the graph. An additional 15.5% of respondents did not answer or did not know.

The Indikator survey also asked respondents about their reasons for choosing a Central Java governor.

The results showed that 20.1% chose a particular figure because they did not know the names of other candidates, 11.3% considered religious figures, and 9.6% chose candidates from the families of political figures.

Among the group who chose a governor from the family of a political figure, 34.5% chose Kaesang.

"This shows that the Jokowi factor explains very strongly why Kaesang is currently leading in Central Java, although statistically it is not different from Ahmad Luthfi," said Burhanuddin.

This survey involved 800 respondents in Central Java, with the criteria of being 17 years of age or older or already married. Respondents were selected using multistage random sampling.

Data collection was conducted from June 10-17, 2024, through face-to-face interviews. The survey's margin of error is approximately 3.5% at a 95% confidence level.