Warning: These 10 Regencies/Cities Have the Highest Election Vulnerability

The Indonesian General Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) launched the 2024 Simultaneous Election and Voting Vulnerability Index (IKP) on December 16, 2022.

The IKP maps potential election vulnerabilities across 34 provinces and 514 regencies/cities throughout Indonesia.

According to Bawaslu's definition, election vulnerability encompasses anything that disrupts or hinders a democratic electoral process. This vulnerability is measured using four main indicators:

* Social and Political Dimensions: encompassing security, the authority of election organizers, and the authority of state officials.
* Election Organization Dimensions: including the right to vote, campaign implementation, voting procedures, election adjudication and objections, and election supervision.
* Contestation Dimensions: encompassing the right to be elected and candidate campaigns.
* Participation Dimensions: including voter participation and community group participation.

These four indicators are then processed into a score on a scale of 0-100. An area is considered high-risk if it receives an IKP score between 68.5-100. Scores between 21.7-68.5 fall into the medium-risk category, and scores below 21.7 indicate low risk.

Using the above assessment method, Bawaslu identified 10 regencies/cities with the highest election vulnerability; 5 are located in Tanah Papua, 2 in Java, 1 in Sumatra, 1 in Kalimantan, and 1 in Nusa Tenggara.

Jayawijaya and Intan Jaya are the regencies with the highest risk of disruption in the 2024 elections, with an IKP score of 100.

Following are Bandung Regency, Yalimo Regency, Mappi Regency, Banjarbaru City, Jayapura Regency, Pandeglang Regency, North Labuhanbatu Regency, and Malaka Regency, with scores detailed in the graph.

In addition to the 10 areas mentioned above, 75 other regencies/cities are considered vulnerable to disruption in the 2024 elections.

The following is a complete list of 85 regencies/cities with high and medium election vulnerability indices:

1. Jayawijaya Regency: 100.00
2. Intan Jaya Regency: 100.00
3. Bandung Regency: 91.59
4. Yalimo Regency: 86.66
5. Mappi Regency: 82.13
6. Banjarbaru City: 80.14
7. Jayapura Regency: 78.05
8. Pandeglang Regency: 77.74
9. North Labuhanbatu Regency: 76.29
10. Malaka Regency: 76.03
11. Ternate City: 75.30
12. Semarang City: 73.26
13. Tolikara Regency: 72.51
14. Sukoharjo Regency: 70.20
15. Banggai Islands Regency: 67.72
16. East Lombok Regency: 67.57
17. Majalengka Regency: 67.14
18. Purworejo Regency: 67.11
19. Simeulue Regency: 67.07
20. Kotabaru Regency: 65.52
21. Tasikmalaya Regency: 65.42
22. East Jakarta City: 65.14
23. Yapen Islands Regency: 64.93
24. Cirebon Regency: 64.79
25. Sleman Regency: 64.56
26. Central Halmahera Regency: 64.19
27. Malang Regency: 64.01
28. Agam Regency: 63.96
29. Kediri Regency: 63.40
30. Puncak Regency: 63.23
31. Bulukumba Regency: 63.19
32. South Central Timor Regency: 63.03
33. Bandar Lampung City: 62.90
34. Pidie Regency: 61.80
35. Central Lombok Regency: 61.23
36. Batang Hari Regency: 61.18
37. Mimika Regency: 61.18
38. Fakfak Regency: 61.04
39. West Bandung Regency: 59.93
40. Central Mamberamo Regency: 59.68
41. South Nias Regency: 59.65
42. Nduga Regency: 59.55
43. Temanggung Regency: 59.05
44. Lebak Regency: 58.78
45. Sungai Penuh City: 58.67
46. Wonosobo Regency: 58.35
47. South Aceh Regency: 57.75
48. East Sumba Regency: 57.52
49. Kerinci Regency: 57.42
50. Jayapura City: 56.64
51. Sigi Regency: 56.38
52. Nabire Regency: 56.28
53. Tuban Regency: 56.21
54. Bojonegoro Regency: 55.76
55. Bekasi City: 55.48
56. Mamuju Regency: 54.90
57. Parepare City: 54.69
58. Central Lampung Regency: 54.65
59. Sarmi Regency: 54.34
60. Magelang Regency: 54.25
61. Pasangkayu Regency: 54.21
62. South Bolaang Mongondow Regency: 54.04
63. Serang City: 53.32
64. Kendal Regency: 53.25
65. Banyuasin Regency: 53.19
66. Nagan Raya Regency: 53.03
67. Sekadau Regency: 52.78
68. Wakatobi Regency: 52.73
69. Banggai Regency: 52.66
70. West Pasaman Regency: 52.66
71. Ketapang Regency: 52.27
72. Sampang Regency: 52.19
73. Alor Regency: 51.83
74. North Bolaang Mongondow Regency: 51.75
75. Kutai Kartanegara Regency: 51.49
76. Tasikmalaya City: 51.28
77. Pacitan Regency: 51.17
78. Kuningan Regency: 51.10
79. South Konawe Regency: 50.68
80. Cianjur Regency: 50.65
81. Kotamobagu City: 50.65
82. West Kutai Regency: 50.33
83. Muna Regency: 49.91
84. Asmat Regency: 49.47
85. Jeneponto Regency: 49.38