SMRC: Prabowo's Electability Leads if Presidential Candidates are Only from the Political Elite

Prabowo Subianto, General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party, achieved the highest electability as a presidential candidate (Capres) if the presidential election (Pilpres) were only contested by political elites.

This finding is based on a survey conducted by Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) from August 5-13, 2022.

Based on a closed simulation of five presidential candidates from political elites, Prabowo garnered the largest electability, namely 39.4% of respondent votes in August 2022. He was followed by the General Chairperson of the Democratic Party, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), who received 13.3% of respondent votes.

Meanwhile, Puan Maharani, Head of the Governance, Defense, and Security Sector of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), achieved an electability of 6.9% of respondent votes. Muhaimin Iskandar, General Chairperson of the National Awakening Party (PKB), received 6.7% of respondent votes.

Furthermore, Airlangga Hartarto, General Chairperson of the Golkar Party, achieved an electability of 3.3% of respondent votes. The number of respondents who did not know (TT)/did not answer (TJ) was 30.3%.

The SMRC survey used multistage random sampling, involving 1,220 respondents. However, only 1,053 valid responses were collected (86%). The margin of error for the sample size is 3.1% with a 95% confidence level (assuming simple random sampling).