Andika and Luthfi's Electability in Tight Competition in the 2024 Central Java Regional Elections

Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas) released the results of its latest survey on the electability of gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidate pairs in a simulation of the 2024 Central Java Regional Elections (Pilkada).

Candidate pair number 1, Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi (Hendi), leads with 28.8% electability.

Candidate pair number 2, Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin Maimoen, closely follows with 28.1%.

However, 43.1% are undecided voters or respondents who have not yet decided on a candidate.

Of the undecided voters, the majority (42.9%) have not chosen a gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidate pair because they are still waiting for the campaign or debate process. 11.6% are waiting for advice from trusted sources, 4.1% are still unaware of the candidates' backgrounds, 3.6% are unfamiliar with the candidates, and 2.6% stated that the candidate pairs do not meet their preferences.

"It is possible that potential voters already have a gubernatorial candidate in mind, but are waiting for the political process to solidify their choice," wrote the Kompas Litbang team in their report on Monday, November 4, 2024.

"The tight competition leading up to the Central Java Pilkada voting day will be crucially determined by the shift in undecided voters," it continued.

The survey involved 1,000 respondents randomly selected using a stratified systematic sampling method in Central Java province.

Data collection was conducted from October 10-25, 2024, through face-to-face interviews. The survey's margin of error is approximately 3.1% with a 95% confidence level, under conditions of simple random sampling.