Tolikara Regency: Highest Risk Area in the 2017 Regional Elections

The 2017 simultaneous regional elections (Pilkada) will involve 94 regencies/cities in Indonesia. Four of these are considered high-risk areas for election irregularities. According to the Election Supervisory Agency (Badan Pengawas Pemilu), these four areas have an Election Vulnerability Index (IKP) above 3.00. Furthermore, 41 regencies/cities have a moderate level of election vulnerability, with an IKP between 2.00 and 3.00.

The four high-risk areas are located in Papua. Tolikara has the highest IKP (3.503) among the regencies/cities holding the 2017 Pilkada, followed by Intan Jaya Regency (IKP 3.301). The other two high-risk areas are Nduga Regency and Lanny Jaya Regency.

The vulnerability of a Pilkada is determined by aspects of administration, contestation, and participation. These three aspects are formulated into 10 variables and 31 indicators, each with different weighting. The IKP 2017 is compiled from the measurements of each aspect, variable, and indicator in the respective Pilkada regions.