SBY Supports Prabowo, This is the Power Map of the Gerindra Coalition et al. if the Democrats Join

The Democrat Party officially announced its support for Prabowo Subianto as a prospective presidential candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres).

According to *Katadata*, this support was conveyed directly by the Chairman of the Democrat Party's High Council, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), to Prabowo in Hambalang, Bogor, West Java, on Sunday (September 17, 2023).

In the meeting, SBY was accompanied by the Democrat Party's General Chairperson, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). The Deputy Chairperson of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Viva Yoga Mauladi, stated that the support expressed by SBY and AHY in the closed-door meeting was witnessed by high-ranking officials from parties supporting Prabowo.

“In his remarks, Mr. SBY stated the following: The Democrat Party officially declares its support for Prabowo Subianto as a presidential candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election,” said Viva Yoga, who was also present at the meeting.

Although they have declared support for Prabowo, the Democrats have not yet stated their intention to join the coalition supporting the prospective presidential candidate. The decision will be determined at the Democrat Party's National Leadership Meeting (Rapimnas) on Thursday, September 21, 2023, and will be announced directly by AHY.

"Regarding the official decision of the Democrat Party to join a coalition or collaborate for the 2024 Presidential Election, this will be announced directly by the General Chairperson of the Democrat Party, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, at the Democrat Party's Rapimnas on Thursday, September 21, 2023," said Herzaky in a written statement to *Kompas.com*, Sunday (September 17, 2023).

The lack of a coalition decision from the Democrats also influences Gerindra's stance on revealing the prospective vice-presidential candidate who will accompany Prabowo. The Deputy Chairperson of the Gerindra Party, Budi Djiwandono, revealed that the announcement of the vice-presidential candidate's name will be made after the Democrat Party officially joins the United Indonesia Coalition (KIM).

KIM was previously known as the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR). This group was formed by Gerindra and PKB to nominate Prabowo as the 2024 presidential candidate. However, the General Chairperson of PKB, Cak Imin, claimed to be unaware of and uninvolved in the name change.

PKB then left the coalition and formed a new axis with the coalition supporting Anies Baswedan after Cak Imin was approached by the prospective presidential candidate.

Therefore, KIM now consists of several parties, including Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, and PBB. With the predicted inclusion of the Democrats, what will be the strength of this coalition?

Based on data from the General Election Commission (KPU) and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Gerindra was the party with the most votes in the coalition in the 2019 General Election, with 17.59 million votes or 12.57% of the total national valid votes (139.97 million votes).

Meanwhile, Gerindra obtained 78 seats in the DPR (House of Representatives), or 13.56% of the total 575 DPR seats.

Second most was Golkar, with 17.22 million votes or 12.31%. Golkar's seats in the DPR in the 2019 General Election were 85, or 14.78%.

Next is PAN, with 9.57 million votes or 6.84%. The total number of PAN seats in the DPR was 44, or 7.65%.

Then, PBB, with 1.09 million votes or 0.79%. Because it did not meet the parliamentary threshold of 2.5%, PBB did not obtain any parliamentary seats in the 2019 General Election.

The Democrats themselves received 10.87 million votes or 7.77%. The Democrats obtained 54 seats in the DPR, or 9.39%.

If the Democrats join, this coalition is predicted to become even stronger. The presidential threshold of this coalition would reach 40.28% (with PBB) or 39.49% (without PBB) of the national valid votes. Meanwhile, the DPR seats obtained would amount to 45.38% (without PBB).

The threshold is regulated in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections.

According to *Kompas.com*, Article 222 of the law states that a pair of candidates is nominated by a political party or a coalition of participating political parties that meet the requirements of obtaining at least 20% of the total DPR seats or obtaining 25% of the national valid votes in the previous DPR general election.

The following are the percentages of votes and DPR seats obtained by KIM in the 2019 General Election:

* Valid Votes
* Gerindra: 12.57% of the total national valid votes
* Golkar: 12.31%
* PAN: 6.84%
* PBB: 0.79%
* Democrat: 7.77%

* DPR Seats
* Gerindra: 13.56% of 575 seats
* Golkar: 14.78%
* PAN: 7.65%
* PBB: 0
* Democrat: 9.39%