The latest survey by Kompas Research and Development shows that the presidential candidate (capres) - vice presidential candidate (cawapres) pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka leads other candidates in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres 2024) simulation.
Candidate pair (paslon) number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, received 39.3% of the vote.
Below them, candidate pair number 1, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, received 16.7%, and candidate pair number 3, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, received 15.3%.
Kompas Research and Development notes that the electability gap between Anies and Prabowo, which was 12.1% in August 2023, has widened to 22.3%.
Meanwhile, Ganjar, who previously had a slight lead over Prabowo with a difference of 2.8%, now sees his position reversed. Prabowo leads Ganjar with an electability gap of 21.7%.
Furthermore, the gap between Ganjar and Anies has narrowed. Previously, Ganjar led by 14.9% over Anies; now, it's a closer 0.6%.
Kompas Research and Development analyzes that the increase in Prabowo's electability and the decrease in votes for Ganjar are due to the shift in support from former Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin voters.
"Jokowi's voters in the 2019 Presidential Election, who in August 2023 still predominantly chose Ganjar, are now recorded as choosing Prabowo more," wrote Bambang Setiawan, author of Kompas Research and Development, on Monday (11/12/2023).
In addition, the Kompas Research and Development survey also captures the dynamics of undecided voters, which stand at 28.7%. Kompas Research and Development considers this figure quite large considering the election is only two months away.
"Most of this group are former Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin voters in the 2019 Presidential Election. Others are people who did not exercise their right to vote or kept their choice secret in the previous election," wrote Kompas Research and Development.
The survey was conducted face-to-face from November 29 to December 4, 2023, involving 1,364 respondents randomly selected using a stratified systematic sampling method in 38 Indonesian provinces. The margin of error for this research is estimated at 2.65% with a 95% confidence level.
(See also: Survey LSI: Prabowo-Gibran's Electability Soars Ahead of Presidential Debate)