Survey Indicators: Prabowo-Gibran Still Leading, Anies-Muhaimin Surpass Ganjar-Mahfud

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Nabilah Muhamad 19/01/2024 13:36 WIB

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According to a survey by Indikator Politik, the electability of the second candidate pair, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, achieved the highest electability rating at 45.79%.

Electability of Three Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Pairs According to Indikator Survey (December 30, 2023 – January 6, 2024)

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Survey Indicators: Prabowo-Gibran Still Leading, Anies-Muhaimin Surpass Ganjar-Mahfud

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Electability of Three Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Pairs According to Indikator Survey (December 30, 2023 – January 6, 2024)

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A recent survey by Indikator Politik shows that the second candidate pair, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, achieved the highest electability compared to other candidates in a 2024 Presidential Election simulation.

During the survey period of December 30, 2023 – January 6, 2024, Prabowo-Gibran achieved an electability rating of 45.79%.

Below them is the first candidate pair, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, with a considerably lower rating of 25.47%, followed by the third candidate pair, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, at 22.96%.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, stated that this national survey indicates that the 2024 Presidential Election may not necessarily be a one or two-round election.

"It's not certain to be a single round, nor is it certain to be two rounds," said Burhanuddin in a virtual presentation of the survey on Thursday (18/1/2024).

He mentioned that the Prabowo-Gibran pair has the highest chance of advancing to the second round. However, their opponent is yet to be predicted.

"Because candidates 01 and 03 have statistically equal chances. Although, in absolute terms, Anies Baswedan has a greater chance of entering the second round alongside Mr. Prabowo," said Burhanuddin.

Nevertheless, Burhanuddin believes that the potential for the 2024 Presidential Election to conclude in a single round is still open. According to him, this depends on the political constellation in the last month.

This survey involved 1,200 respondents aged 17 or older or already married at the time of the survey, spread across all regions of Indonesia. The sample was selected using a multistage random sampling method.

Indikator Politik Indonesia then conducted an oversample in 13 provinces: Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Lampung, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Banten, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi. This resulted in a total sample of 4,560 respondents.

Data collection was conducted from December 30, 2023 – January 6, 2024, using face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers. The margin of error is approximately 2%, and the confidence level is 95%.

(See also: SMRC: The "One Poor Family, One Graduate" Program is Most Needed by the Public)

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Survey Indicators: Prabowo-Gibran Still Leading, Anies-Muhaimin Surpass Ganjar-Mahfud

Survey Indicators: Prabowo-Gibran Still Leading, Anies-Muhaimin Surpass Ganjar-Mahfud

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