The Indonesian Political Indicator Research Institute conducted a survey on the electability of 19 prospective vice-presidential candidates (cawapres) using a semi-open simulation in September 2023.
The results show that Minister of State-Owned Enterprises and Chairman of PSSI, Erick Thohir, is the top choice for vice president among East Java residents, with support from 17.2% of respondents.
Next is the Governor of East Java, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, who is closely behind Erick Thohir. Khofifah garnered 15.1% of the vote from respondents in the province she leads.
Following is the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs (Menko Polhukam), Mahfud MD, ranking third with an electability of 11.5%.
Next in line are Ridwan Kamil with 9.2% electability, Sandiaga Uno with 7.1%, and Gibran Rakabuming with 5.5%.
Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan's running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar or Cak Imin, only achieved 4.9% electability in East Java.
"Although Gus Muhaimin has been designated as the vice-presidential candidate by Nasdem, PKB, and PKS, it doesn't automatically mean that voters in East Java will choose Gus Muhaimin," said Indikator researcher Burhanuddin Muhtadi in his virtual presentation on Sunday (1/10/2023).
In addition, several other prospective vice-presidential candidates achieved electability of less than 5%, the details of which can be seen in the graph.
To date, only Anies Baswedan has declared his running mate. The other two prospective presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, have yet to announce their running mates for the 2024 General Election.
This Indikator survey involved 1,810 respondents aged 17 years and older or who are married. The sample was randomly selected using a multistage random sampling method.
Data collection was conducted from September 14-20, 2023, through face-to-face interviews. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 2.4% and a confidence level of 95%.