State-owned bank (BUMN) share prices have collectively weakened over the past year.
This has been experienced by PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (Bank Mandiri), PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BRI), and PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN).
Based on data from Investing.com, on February 10, 2025, Bank Mandiri's share price closed at Rp5,000, down 29.58% year-on-year (YoY) compared to February 12, 2024.
Over the same period, BNI's share price fell 30.25% (YoY) to Rp4,150; BRI's share price fell 34.11% (YoY) to Rp3,970; and BTN's share price fell 30.51% (YoY) to Rp945.
Previously, the share prices of these BUMN banks tended to decline during Q1 and Q2 2024, then strengthened in Q3 2024.
However, since Q4 2024, the trend has reversed downwards again until the beginning of this year, as seen in the graph.
According to capital market observer Michael Yeoh, this decline is influenced by various conditions, ranging from the strengthening US dollar to global economic uncertainty.
"The latest trade war policies articulated by [US President] Donald Trump are driving capital outflow from the global market to the US. This is strengthening the dollar," said Michael, as reported by IDXChannel.com on Thursday (February 6, 2025).
Senior Investment Information at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, echoed similar sentiments. He assessed that the sluggishness in banking stocks was triggered by external sentiment related to US trade policies and central bank interest rates.
"This is giving negative sentiment to the market, not to mention Trump also imposing a 10% tariff on imports of goods made in China," said Nafan, as reported by Katadata.co.id on Monday (February 10, 2025).
"The projection is that The Fed will not be aggressive in easing its monetary policy. The Fed's policy has an impact on the Indonesian market, especially the banking sector," he said.