Considering Indonesia's 2025 EBT Mix Target, Is It Achievable?

The Indonesian government has committed to reducing carbon emissions, including by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of new and renewable energy (EBT).

In the 2021-2030 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), the government targets that the EBT portion in the national energy mix will reach 23% in 2025.

However, according to the 2022 Energy and Mineral Resources Sector Performance Report from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, by the end of last year, the EBT mix was still far from the target, at only 14.11%.

Furthermore, over the past six years, the EBT mix has not changed significantly. During the 2017-2022 period, it fluctuated only between 12% and 14%.

The slow growth of EBT in Indonesia is accompanied by minimal investment.

According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources report, in 2017, the realization of investment in the national EBT sector reached US$2 billion. However, in subsequent years, EBT investment tended to decline, reaching US$1.6 billion in 2022.

This figure is much smaller than investment in the oil and gas sector, which consistently exceeded US$10 billion per year during the 2017-2022 period.

Amidst these conditions, Andri Prasetyo, Program Manager of Trend Asia, believes that Indonesia's EBT mix target is difficult to achieve.

"Every year (the EBT mix) only increases slightly, less than 1%. There are only two years left to catch up on approximately 11% to reach the 23% target. If the government doesn't make new breakthroughs, that target will fail," said Andri in an interview with Katadata, Friday (August 25, 2023).

On the other hand, Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR), is slightly more optimistic. He believes that the 2025 EBT mix target could be achieved if the government intensifies rooftop solar power plant (PLTS) projects.

"If rooftop PLTS is accelerated, (the EBT mix) might reach 23%, plus there's an addition from the use of biomass if it can be increased by 10% or 5% according to PLN's target. So that's the key," said Fabby, as reported by Katadata (August 25, 2023).