School Closures Due to COVID-19 Potentially Lower Indonesia's PISA Score

Indonesia needs to be wary of the potential learning losses resulting from school closures to curb the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The World Bank predicts that school closures until June 2021 resulted in a loss of approximately 0.9 years of learning for Indonesian children.

Furthermore, Indonesian children potentially face a 25-point drop in their PISA reading scores in an optimistic scenario. Therefore, Indonesia's post-pandemic PISA score is estimated to be 346.

In a medium scenario, Indonesia's PISA score is projected to fall by 30 points to 341. This medium scenario assumes that 50% of schools were closed in the new school year starting July 2021.

Meanwhile, in a pessimistic scenario, Indonesia's PISA score would decrease by 36 points to 335 post-pandemic. This scenario assumes that all schools nationwide remained closed until December 2021.

In addition, the percentage of students not meeting the minimum PISA reading proficiency standard is projected to increase from 70% in 2018 to 81% in the optimistic scenario. In the medium and pessimistic scenarios, this percentage is projected to increase to 83% and 85%, respectively.

Moreover, all students in Indonesia are projected to experience a lifetime income loss of US$306 billion if 50% of schools remain closed at the beginning of July 2021. This figure is equivalent to 20% of the 2020 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to the World Bank, this situation can be avoided if effective learning recovery measures are implemented immediately. Therefore, the government needs to strive to curb the spread of the coronavirus and accelerate vaccination efforts so that schools can reopen.