Macroeconomic Sensitivity in the Draft 2026 Indonesian State Budget

Every year, the Indonesian government compiles the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Draft (RAPBN) based on several macroeconomic indicators.

These indicators are projections based on assessments of current economic dynamics and future economic estimations.

The projections are then used to estimate the amount of state revenue, expenditure, and budget surplus or deficit.

The following details the assumptions of the macroeconomic indicators used in the RAPBN 2026:

• Projected economic growth: 5.4% (year-on-year/yoy)
• Projected inflation: 2.5% (yoy)
• Projected Rupiah exchange rate: Rp16,500/US$ (average)
• Projected Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP): US$70/barrel (average)
• Projected oil lifting: 610 thousand barrels per day (bpd)
• Projected gas lifting: 984 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd)

Changes in these indicators can directly or indirectly impact the RAPBN.

Therefore, the government also calculates the RAPBN sensitivity, which is an estimate of how changes in macroeconomic indicators can increase state revenue or expenditure. The following details the RAPBN 2026 sensitivity:

If economic growth increases by 0.1% (year-on-year/yoy) from the initial projection:

• State revenue: increases by Rp2.1 trillion
• State expenditure: Rp0 (remains unchanged)
• Budget surplus/(deficit): Rp2.1 trillion

If inflation increases by 0.1% (yoy):

• State revenue: increases by Rp1.9 trillion
• State expenditure: Rp0 (remains unchanged)
• Budget surplus/(deficit): Rp1.9 trillion

If the 10-Year State Debt Securities (SBN) interest rate increases by 0.1%:

• State revenue: Rp0 (remains unchanged)
• State expenditure: increases by Rp1.9 trillion
• Budget surplus/(deficit): (Rp1.9 trillion)

If the Rupiah exchange rate strengthens by Rp100/US$:

• State revenue: increases by Rp5.3 trillion
• State expenditure: increases by Rp6.1 trillion
• Budget surplus/(deficit): (Rp0.8 trillion)

If the average Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) increases by US$1/barrel:

• State revenue: increases by Rp3.5 trillion
• State expenditure: increases by Rp10.3 trillion
• Budget surplus/(deficit): (Rp6.8 trillion)

If oil lifting increases by 10 thousand bpd:

• State revenue: increases by Rp1.8 trillion
• State expenditure: Rp0 (remains unchanged)
• Budget surplus/(deficit): Rp1.8 trillion

If natural gas lifting increases by 10 thousand boepd:

• State revenue: increases by Rp1.3 trillion
• State expenditure: Rp0 (remains unchanged)
• Budget surplus/(deficit): Rp1.3 trillion

The calculation of the economic impact of a change in one variable using sensitivity is linear, assuming that other variables remain unchanged (ceteris paribus).