GRP Survey: Agus Leads in 219 Sub-districts

The electability of the gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidates for Jakarta, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni, ranks highest. According to a survey by PT Grup Riset Potensial (GRP), Agus-Sylvi leads in 219 sub-districts (kelurahan) in Jakarta. PT GRP's IT and Technical Advisor, Farit M. Afendi, as reported by *kompas.com*, stated that in 194 sub-districts, the pair (number one on the ballot) leads by more than 10 percent.

Meanwhile, the pair Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok)-Djarot Syaiful Hidayat leads in 23 sub-districts. In 11 sub-districts, Ahok-Djarot leads by more than 5 percent. In 12 other sub-districts, Ahok-Djarot only leads by a narrow margin over Agus-Sylvi. The other candidate, Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno, did not lead in any specific area. Their voters are spread across various sub-districts in Jakarta.

According to Farit, the 27 sub-districts sampled in the survey are considered sufficient to represent all sub-districts in Jakarta. PT GRP grouped the 267 sub-districts in Jakarta into 27 groups of sub-districts based on similar voter characteristics in the research conducted from January 2-7, 2017. This survey, with 2,745 respondents, used a stratified systematic sampling method and a multinomial logit regression statistical model with a margin of error below 2 percent.