Three Presidential Candidate Support Trends in Indikator Survey: Ganjar and Prabowo Neck and Neck

The Indonesian Political Indicator research institution compiled the trend of support for three presidential candidates (capres) in a 2024 Presidential Election simulation. These three candidates are Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan.

These three names have the highest level of support compared to other figures. Their electability has been compiled since July 2022, incorporating data from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).

Among the three, Ganjar's support has shown significant strengthening. The Governor of Central Java experienced a considerable drop in April 2023, to only 27.9%. His statements regarding the U-20 World Cup are believed to be a factor in this decline, as he was accused of causing the cancellation of the prestigious event. However, a month later, the electability of this PDI-P cadre soared to 34.4%.

Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto's electability was initially quite low, at 24.6%. Support for the Gerindra Party chairman has been quite fluctuating, but has shown consistent growth since February 2023. In February, Prabowo received 26.7% support, increasing to 32.7% in April 2023 and 34.8% in May 2023. His score in the latest survey surpassed the other two prominent candidates.

Lastly, Anies Baswedan received high support in July 2022, at 28.6%, almost surpassing Ganjar Pranowo who received 29.6%.

Unfortunately, Anies' electability has shown a steady decline in each survey period. A significant drop is visible from October 2022 (28.4%) to January 2023 (24.2%).

Based on the above graph, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto show considerably high electability, almost neck and neck in the latest survey period.

Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents answering "don't know" or "don't answer" (TT/TJ) also fluctuated. In the May 2023 survey, this trend decreased to only 8.9% of total respondents.

Respondents in this survey were 1,200 Indonesian citizens aged 17 years and older, or married, and who owned a telephone at the time of the survey.

The sample selection method used random digit dialing (RDD). RDD is a technique for selecting samples through the random generation of telephone numbers.

The survey's margin of error is approximately 2.9% at a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling. Interviews were conducted via telephone from April 30 to May 5, 2023.