LSI Survey: PDI-P Likely to Win 2019 Legislative Election Again

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) has a high chance of winning the 2019 legislative election. This is reflected in the LSI Denny JA survey, which shows the electability of the party led by Megawati Soekarno Putri at 24.8% of respondent votes. This figure is higher than that of other parties, as shown in the graph below.

With almost a quarter of the total respondent votes, the PDIP has the potential to break the curse of no party winning the legislative election twice in a row. Since the 1998 reforms, no party has won the legislative election twice consecutively. The PDIP, associated with Joko Widodo and fielding its own candidate in the 2019 presidential election, has an advantage. However, 25.2% of votes remain undecided, leaving room for shifts in support before the 2019 legislative election.

In 1999, the PDIP won the legislative election with 33.7% of the vote. However, in 2014, the Golkar Party took the lead with 21.6% of the vote. In 2009, the Democratic Party topped the legislative election with 20.9% of the vote. In the 2014 legislative election, the PDIP again emerged victorious with 18.9% of the vote.

The LSI survey was conducted from August 12-19, 2018, involving 1,200 respondents across Indonesia using a multistage random sampling method. Face-to-face interviews with respondents used questionnaires with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.