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China, the Most Influential Political and Strategic Power in Southeast Asia

Akbar Ridwan 21/04/2026 10:15 WIB

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According to a survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, China will become the most influential political and strategic power in the Southeast Asian region by 2026.

Countries/Regional Organizations with the Most Political and Strategic Influence in Southeast Asia (January 5 - February 20, 2026)

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Countries/Regional Organizations with the Most Political and Strategic Influence in Southeast Asia (January 5 - February 20, 2026)

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According to a survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, China will become the most influential political and strategic power in Southeast Asia by 2026. This perception was expressed by 40% of ASEAN respondents, 10 percentage points higher than the United States (US), which ranked second.

"This confirms that China and the US remain the two major powers shaping the regional strategic environment," researchers wrote in The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey report.

Here are the percentages of countries/regional organizations perceived to have the greatest political and strategic influence in Southeast Asia by 2026:

China: 40%
US: 29.9%
ASEAN: 15.3%
Japan: 5.5%
European Union: 4.2%
Australia: 1.8%
India: 1.6%
South Korea: 1.2%
United Kingdom: 0.5%.

However, this recognition of influence is accompanied by vigilance. As many as 66.1% of respondents expressed concern about China's increasing political and strategic influence.

"Concerns are particularly high in Vietnam (88.7%), the Philippines and Thailand (both at 87.5%), and Timor-Leste (80%)," explained the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Similarly, the US also raises considerable concern, with 56.8% of respondents worried about its growing influence in the region.

"Concerns about US influence are particularly prominent in Thailand (88.3%), Indonesia (68.1%), Singapore (65.4%), Vietnam (62.2%), Malaysia (61.7%), and Timor-Leste (61.5%)," revealed the researchers.

The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute conducted this survey online from January 5 to February 20, 2026 using a mixed purposive sampling method. The respondents totaled 2,008 people from 11 Southeast Asian countries, with a minimum age criterion of 18 years.

The respondents come from five affiliation categories, including academics, members of think tanks, or researchers; representatives of the private sector; representatives of civil society, NGOs, or the media; government officials; and staff of regional or international organizations.

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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