SMRC Political Party Survey: PDI-P Still Leads, Democrats and PKS Neck and Neck

A survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) on the simulation of political party elections for the 2024 General Election shows that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) holds the top position with 23.4% of the total sample.

Gerindra follows at a considerable distance in second place with 14.1% of the vote. In third place is the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 10.3%.

Golkar is fourth with 9.1%, and NasDem is fifth with 7%.

The two parties supporting Anies Baswedan in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election, the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), received similar vote shares. The Democratic Party is sixth with 5.9%, and PKS is seventh with 5.7%.

Other political parties received relatively low vote shares, ranging from 1% to 2.4%. A significant number of respondents also chose not to answer, reaching 15.3%.

Deni Irvani, Research Director of SMRC, stated that the electability of most parties has not yet fully recovered.

Deni also mentioned that changes in the vote share for each party are still possible due to the high percentage of undecided voters (15.3%). "Each party still has the opportunity to increase support because there are approximately 15.3% of voters who have not yet decided," he said in a written statement received by Databoks on Sunday, March 19, 2023.

This survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews from March 2-11, 2023. The survey population comprised all Indonesian citizens with voting rights—those aged 17 or older, or those who were married at the time of the survey.

A stratified multistage random sampling method was used to select 1,220 respondents from this population. The response rate (validly interviewed respondents) was 87%, or 1,061 people, who were then analyzed.

The survey's margin of error is estimated at ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

The following are the SMRC's published political party electability survey results from March 19, 2023:

* PDI-P: 23.4% of the total sample
* Gerindra: 14.1%
* PKB: 10.3%
* Golkar: 9.1%
* NasDem: 7%
* Demokrat: 5.9%
* PKS: 5.7%
* PPP: 2.4%
* PAN: 1.9%
* Perindo: 1.7%
* PSI: 1.1%
* PBB: 0.6%
* Hanura: 0.5%
* Gelora: 0.5%
* PKN: 0.3%
* Buruh: 0.1%
* Garuda: 0.1%
* Ummat: 0.1%
* Don't know/Didn't answer: 15.3%