LSI Survey Respondents Rate Ganjar-Mahfud Pair as Most Potentially Prone to Election Fraud in 2024

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) has released the results of a poll regarding the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs perceived as most likely to commit fraud in the 2024 General Election.

Of the three candidate pairs, Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD were ranked highest as the pair most likely to commit electoral fraud in the 2024 election, with a proportion of 20.6%.

Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka came in second, with a 14.4% proportion perceived as potentially engaging in fraudulent activities.

Meanwhile, the pair Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin) were considered to have the lowest potential for electoral fraud, at only 5.4%.

"According to the public, [the potential for fraud] is highest for the Ganjar-Mahfud pair, followed by Prabowo-Gibran, and there is very little likelihood of Anies-Muhaimin engaging in fraud," said Djayadi Hanan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute, in an online press conference on the LSI YouTube account, Sunday (10/12/2023).

However, a majority, or 59.6%, of respondents chose to answer "don't know/didn't answer" regarding the question of which presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs were potentially likely to commit fraud.

The survey also found that several parties were considered by the public to be most likely to commit fraud in the 2024 election. Political parties ranked highest with a proportion of 17.1%, followed by the presidential and vice-presidential candidate campaign teams at 15.9%, election organizers at 13.6%, and the presidential and vice-presidential candidates themselves at 4.2%.

The LSI survey was conducted from December 3-5, 2023, a few days before the first presidential and vice-presidential candidate debate on December 12, 2023.

The survey targeted 1,426 respondents with a distribution representing the demographic population across all regions of Indonesia. Respondents were Indonesian citizens aged 17 years or older, or married and possessing a telephone, representing approximately 83% of the national population.

Selected respondents were interviewed by telephone by trained interviewers. The sample was drawn using the random digit dialing (RDD) method. RDD is a technique for selecting a sample through the random generation of telephone numbers.

The survey sample was selected through a process of random telephone number generation, validation, and screening. The margin of error of the survey is estimated to be around 2.6% at a 95% confidence level.