Five Provinces Most Vulnerable to Disturbances in the 2024 General Election; Jakarta Tops the List

The Indonesian General Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) launched the 2024 Election and Simultaneous Election Vulnerability Index (IKP) on December 16, 2022.

This IKP maps potential election vulnerabilities across Indonesia's 34 provinces and 514 regencies/cities.

According to Bawaslu, election vulnerability encompasses anything that could disrupt or hinder a democratic electoral process. Vulnerability is measured using four main indicators:

1. Social and political dimensions (security, election organizer authority, and state authority)
2. Election administration dimensions (right to vote, campaign implementation, voting implementation, adjudication, election objections, and election supervision)
3. Contestation dimensions (right to be elected and candidate campaigns)
4. Participation dimensions (voter participation and community group participation)

These dimensions are then processed into a score ranging from 0-100. A higher score indicates a greater risk of disruption to the election.

An area is considered high-risk if it receives an IKP score between 68.5-100. Scores between 21.7-68.5 fall into the medium-risk category, while scores below 21.7 indicate low risk.

Bawaslu identified five provinces with high election vulnerability: DKI Jakarta, North Sulawesi, North Maluku, West Java, and East Kalimantan, with scores detailed in the graph.

The highest vulnerability was found in the capital city, with detailed vulnerability scores as follows: social and political dimension 78.27 (4th highest rank), election administration dimension 92.36 (3rd highest rank), contestation dimension 96.08 (2nd highest rank), and participation dimension 87.01 (4th highest rank).

Bawaslu also found 21 provinces with a medium level of vulnerability. Only 8 provinces exhibited low vulnerability.

The following is a complete list of 2024 Election Vulnerability Scores in Indonesia's 34 provinces, ordered from highest to lowest:

1. DKI Jakarta: 88.95
2. North Sulawesi: 87.48
3. North Maluku: 84.86
4. West Java: 77.04
5. East Kalimantan: 74.04
6. Banten: 66.53
7. Lampung: 64.61
8. Riau: 62.59
9. Papua: 57.27
10. East Nusa Tenggara: 56.75
11. North Sumatra: 55.43
12. Maluku: 53.69
13. West Papua: 53.48
14. South Kalimantan: 53.35
15. Central Sulawesi: 52.90
16. Bali: 52.75
17. Gorontalo: 45.44
18. West Sulawesi: 43.44
19. Yogyakarta Special Region: 43.02
20. Riau Islands: 40.33
21. West Sumatra: 39.68
22. Southeast Sulawesi: 38.32
23. Aceh: 38.06
24. South Sumatra: 35.07
25. Central Java: 34.83
26. Bangka Belitung Islands: 29.89
27. North Kalimantan: 20.36
28. Central Kalimantan: 18.77
29. East Java: 14.74
30. West Kalimantan: 12.69
31. Jambi: 12.03
32. West Nusa Tenggara: 11.09
33. South Sulawesi: 10.20
34. Bengkulu: 3.79

Bawaslu member Lolly Suhenty stated that this vulnerability score will serve as the basis for prevention and supervision programs during the election stages.

"We hope that all regions remain conducive, and that nothing happens that could potentially disrupt or hinder the democratic electoral process," said Lolly during the launch of the IKP 2024 on Friday, December 16, 2022.