World Bank's 2026 Gold Price Projections

The World Bank estimates the average price of gold in the global market to reach US$3,400/troy ounce in 2025, a 42% increase compared to last year (year-on-year/yoy).

They also predict the upward trend in gold prices will continue, with the average price rising 5% (yoy) to US$3,575/troy ounce in 2026.

"Gold prices are projected to reach levels about 180 percent above their 2015-19 average in 2026," the World Bank stated in its October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook report.

According to the World Bank, the increase in gold prices in 2025-2026 is influenced by geopolitical uncertainty. This drives up demand for investment assets considered safe (safe-havens), one of which is gold.

Other contributing factors include the easing of monetary policy in the United States (US), the depreciation of the US dollar, and the increasing trend of gold purchases by central banks in various countries.

The World Bank believes gold prices could rise higher than expected if there is an escalation of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.

However, there are also various factors that could potentially lower gold prices.

"The outlook for gold remains subject to considerable uncertainty given gold’s high sensitivity to geopolitical developments and global economic conditions," the World Bank stated in its report.

"This was exemplified by the recent pullback in prices, which coincided with a stronger US dollar and likely reflected some profit-taking by investors after the sharp rally," they said.

The World Bank also stated that gold prices could be pushed lower than expected if the US implements new, unforeseen policies.

"Downside risks stem from a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy stance than currently expected, which would reduce gold’s investment appeal," the World Bank said.

"A durable easing of geopolitical tensions could also curb safehaven demand, while weaker central bank purchases would add to downward pressure," they added.