Indonesia's Natural Gas Balance Projected to be in Deficit in 2025

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) finally released Indonesia's natural gas balance sheet for 2018-2027 on October 1, 2018. Using scenario 1, the national natural gas balance sheet from 2018-2027 shows a consistent surplus. This assumes gas needs are calculated based on natural gas utilization and that long-term export contracts are not extended.

Meanwhile, under scenario 2, Indonesia experiences a gas surplus from 2018-2024. However, a deficit occurs from 2025-2027 due to the assumption of gas demand from the electricity sector as outlined in the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2018-2027. Other causes of the deficit include a 5.5% increase in the retail industry, the timely execution of refinery projects, and the construction of new petrochemical and fertilizer plants. The gas deficit in 2025 is estimated to reach 206.5 mmscfd, as shown in the graph below.

Under scenario 3, Indonesia's natural gas balance sheet will also experience a deficit from 2025-2027. In 2025, the gas balance deficit will be 1,072 mmscfd, increasing to 1,572.43 mmscfd in 2026, but decreasing to 1,374.95 mmscfd in 2027. Scenarios 2 and 3 do not yet account for gas production from the Masela Block and East Natuna Block, as production from both blocks is only expected to begin in 2027.