According to a survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto's electability as a presidential candidate is starting to be overtaken by Anies Baswedan. This occurred after the Nasdem Party declared Anies as its prospective presidential candidate in October 2022.
According to the Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, before being declared a presidential candidate, Anies's electability never surpassed Prabowo Subianto's.
However, in November 2022, the former Governor of DKI Jakarta achieved an electability rating of 24.2%, higher than Prabowo's 17.9% of respondent votes.
Meanwhile, the first position is still consistently held by the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, with an electability rating of 28.6% as of November 2022. This figure increased from 30.2% in September 2022.
According to Burhanuddin, some of Prabowo's supporters have switched to Anies. This can happen because their voter bases are similar.
"When (the electability of) Anies Baswedan rises, who is most impacted by the shift in public support? It turns out to be Mr. Prabowo. So when Anies rises, it partly takes from Mr. Prabowo's supporters," said Burhanuddin in a press conference on Thursday (1/12/2022).
Burhanuddin assesses that Prabowo's electability has also fallen because the General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party is a long-standing figure who has run for president several times. Therefore, according to him, when new figures like Anies and Ganjar Pranowo emerge, the public shifts their support.
Not only that, Burhanuddin continued, Prabowo's electability has fallen because he doesn't interact much directly with the public. Prabowo currently serves as the Minister of Defense in the Indonesian Advanced Cabinet. This is different from Ganjar and Anies, who are respectively the Governor of Central Java and the former Governor of DKI Jakarta.
This survey was conducted from October 30 to November 5, 2022, involving 1,220 respondents aged 17 years or older or who are already married. Sample selection used a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of approximately 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.