Polling Institute: Prabowo-Gibran Lead Despite Stagnation, AMIN Outperforms Ganjar-Mahfud

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Cindy Mutia Annur 04/01/2024 16:12 WIB

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Polling Institute survey results show that the electability of the Prabowo-Gibran presidential candidate pair still holds the top position at the end of December 2023, although it tends to be stagnant

Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Electability (December 2023)

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Polling Institute: Prabowo-Gibran Lead Despite Stagnation, AMIN Outperforms Ganjar-Mahfud

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Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidate Electability (December 2023)

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A recent Polling Institute survey shows that the electability of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates (capres and cawapres) numbered 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, remained in the top position until the end of December 2023. However, the pair's electability has stagnated.

Polling Institute researcher Kennedy Muslim stated that Prabowo-Gibran's electability reached 46.2% during the survey period of December 26-28, 2023. This electability only increased slightly by 0.1% from the survey period of December 15-19, 2023, which was 46.1%.

"The one-week data collection period after the vice-presidential debate shows that (Prabowo-Gibran's electability) is quite stagnant, from 46.1% to 46.2%. So, in the last week after the vice-presidential debate, there has been no movement in the electability of the number 2 presidential candidate," said Kennedy in an online press conference on the Polling Institute's YouTube account, Wednesday (3/1/2024).

Meanwhile, the electability of the number 1 candidate pair (paslon), Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar (AMIN), was 24.6% in the end-of-December 2023 survey, surpassing the number 3 candidate pair, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, who received 21.3%.

The electability of these two candidate pairs increased compared to the previous survey period. Of the three candidate pairs, AMIN showed the highest increase.

"In terms of electability, AMIN saw an increase of around 2%. Meanwhile, the number 3 candidate pair, after the vice-presidential debate, saw an increase, although not significant, of around 0.8%," said Kennedy.

According to Kennedy, the increase in the electability of the AMIN and Ganjar-Mahfud pairs compared to the December 15-19 survey came from swing voters, or voters who might change their support.

"The increase in the number 1 and 3 candidates is due to a decrease in swing voters or those who previously had no choice," he said. This is evident in the proportion of respondents who said they didn't know/didn't answer, which decreased from 10.8% to 7.8%.

The Polling Institute survey was conducted from December 26-28, 2023, through telephone interviews by trained interviewers. The survey involved a sample of 1,246 respondents selected using a combination of the Random Digit Dialing (RDD) method (280 respondents) and Double Sampling (DS) method (996 respondents).

RDD is the process of randomly generating telephone numbers, while DS is the random sampling from a dataset of previous face-to-face survey results. The survey's margin of error is approximately 2.9% with a 95% confidence level.

The target population of this survey was Indonesian citizens aged 17 years and older or who are married and have a telephone/cellphone, approximately 83% of the total national population.

Editor : Erlina Fury Santika

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."

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Polling Institute: Prabowo-Gibran Lead Despite Stagnation, AMIN Outperforms Ganjar-Mahfud

Polling Institute: Prabowo-Gibran Lead Despite Stagnation, AMIN Outperforms Ganjar-Mahfud

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