Median Survey: Jokowi-Ma'ruf's Electability Leads, But Remains Below 50 Percent

The latest national survey results from Median (Media Survei Nasional) show that the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pair Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin (Jokowi-Ma'ruf) is leading against their opponent Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno (Prabowo-Sandiaga). Jokowi-Ma'ruf's electability reached 47.7% of the vote, while their opponents, Prabowo-Sandiaga, only received 35.5%, with the remaining 16.8% of voters undecided.

Although the candidate pair with number 01 is leading, their vote share is still below 50%, and their lead over their opponent is only 12%. Public concern over economic issues and welfare, regarding Jokowi's performance, is the reason for the incumbent president's vote share remaining below 50%. Typically, an incumbent candidate's electability is around 60-70% to maintain their leadership.

Meanwhile, the electability of the presidential candidate pair with number 02 remains low due to several factors disliked by the public. Among these are Prabowo being perceived as harsh, ambitious, having an unproven track record, being unmarried, and allegations of human rights violations. The Median survey was conducted from November 4-16, 2018, involving 1,200 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.