How Many Loyal Jokowi Voters Are There?

Joko Widodo's (Jokowi's) electability showed an upward trend after the 2018 Regional Head Elections, although it remained below 50%. According to a survey by LSI Denny JA, Jokowi's electability reached 49.3% in July, up from 46% in May. Of this figure, approximately 32% were loyal Jokowi supporters (strong supporters), while 17.3% were still undecided (soft supporters).

Meanwhile, Jokowi's opponents (combined), according to the same survey, had an electability of 45.2%, consisting of 30.5% loyal supporters and 14.7% undecided supporters. This means that before campaigning and the finalization of candidate pairings, Jokowi's opponents already had a base of 30.5% committed voters.

The survey results indicate that approximately 37.5% of voters were still undecided and could be swayed to win the presidential election the following year. This figure comprises 17.3% of Jokowi's undecided supporters, 14.7% from the opposing camp, and 5.5% of undecided voters. In the lead-up to the presidential and vice-presidential candidate registration period (August 4-10, 2018), political figures were busy meeting and lobbying for candidate pairings to be supported by both Jokowi's and his opponents' parties.