Ahead of the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election, the Electability of Pram-Doel is Slightly Ahead of RK-Suswono

The Indonesian Political Indicator conducted a survey on the electability of gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial candidates in Jakarta ahead of the 2024 Regional Elections.

The results show that candidate pair number 3, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno (Pram-Doel), received 42.1% of the respondent votes.

This pair holds a slight lead over candidate pair number 1, Ridwan Kamil (RK)-Suswono, whose electability stands at 40.5%.

Executive Director of Indikator, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, stated that the difference in votes between Pram-Doel and RK-Suswono is not statistically significant, as the margin is only 1.9%, less than twice the margin of error of 2.5%.

"This difference falls within the margin of error, making it difficult to definitively conclude who is leading," said Burhanuddin during an online presentation of the survey on Friday, November 22, 2024.

Candidate pair number 2, Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana, only received 4.8% of the respondent votes. 12.6% of respondents remain undecided.

Burhanuddin also noted the presence of swing voters, respondents who have made a choice but may still change their minds.

25.1% of respondents stated that their choice could still change. 4.3% felt the possibility of change was very high, and 20.8% said the possibility was quite high.

"Whether the election will be decided in one round or not depends heavily on the behavior of swing voters, where they will go in the remaining 7 days," said Burhanuddin.

The survey involved 1,229 respondents in Jakarta, aged 17 or older, or married. Respondents were selected using double sampling, a random sampling method from a previously collected dataset of face-to-face survey data.

Data collection was conducted from November 15-21, 2024, through telephone interviews. The survey's margin of error is approximately 2.5% at a 95% confidence level.