Based on World Bank data, the average price of Newcastle Australian coal in March 2024 reached US$131.49 per ton.
The price increased by 5.9% compared to February 2024 (month-on-month/mom), but remained 29.8% lower than in March 2023 (year-on-year/yoy).
Despite the strengthening, coal prices throughout 2024 are projected to remain below 2023 levels, with an average projection of US$127 per ton.
This projection was released by the Australian government's research agency, the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources (DISR).
"In the absence of disruptions from global conflict and extreme weather, coal prices are expected to gradually decline, as demand reduction is slightly faster than supply reduction," said DISR in its March 2024 edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly report.
However, DISR also identified several factors that could trigger coal price volatility.
"With the possibility of a La Niña cycle in the second half of 2024, prices are vulnerable to volatility," said DISR.
"An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts could also drive up oil and natural gas prices, which in turn could lead to a delayed increase in coal prices," they said.