The Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate in the spot market on Thursday (March 1st) briefly touched Rp13,800 per US dollar due to market players' concerns about a larger-than-expected US Federal Reserve (The Fed) interest rate hike. The upward trend of the US dollar against major world currencies immediately impacted the Rupiah's movement since the beginning of January 2018. To date, the Rupiah has weakened by 1.67% against the US dollar compared to its position at the end of last year.
According to Bloomberg data, on Thursday (March 1st), the Rupiah exchange rate in the spot market was briefly traded at Rp13,816 per US dollar at the beginning of trading. However, it strengthened to Rp13,782 per US dollar at the end of the first session. Furthermore, for the three-month forward contract, the Rupiah exchange rate was at Rp13,906 per US dollar. This indicates that the Rupiah still has the potential to weaken in the medium term.
Based on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) technical indicator, the US dollar against the Rupiah is quite expensive in the short term and has the potential to strengthen. This is reflected in the Rupiah's RSI index, which has reached 73.29 on a scale of 0-100. An index above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while below 30 indicates oversold conditions. However, the Rupiah still has the potential to weaken in the medium term, as the 100-day Rupiah RSI index is at 57, which is within the normal range.