Indonesia's Copper Reserves Only Sufficient for 33 Years of Production

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Indonesia had the 7th largest copper reserves in the world in 2021.

However, according to the report from the Indonesian Integrated Environmental and Economic Balance System by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), national copper resources can only be extracted for another 33 years, starting from 2021.

This remaining lifespan is relatively short compared to bauxite and nickel, as shown in the graph.

BPS calculated the estimated asset lifespan from the ratio between the physical stock (reserves) of national resources at the end of 2021 and the extraction rate in recent years.

"Copper extraction rates in Indonesia decreased during the 2017-2019 period before increasing again in 2020 and 2021," said BPS.

Based on the BPS report, Indonesia's proven copper reserves have decreased from 24.22 million tons at the end of 2017 to 19.94 million tons at the end of 2021.

The current stock is also expected to decrease further, considering the significant increase in copper exports in 2022.

President Jokowi plans to halt copper exports starting in mid-2023.

"Indonesia lost the nickel case at the WTO. We're stopping bauxite exports, and maybe in the middle of the year we'll add copper," Jokowi said at the 50th anniversary of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in Jakarta on Tuesday (10/1/2023).

Previously, the Indonesian government banned nickel ore exports since January 1, 2020. However, this policy was challenged by the European Union to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

After a lengthy trial, the WTO granted the European Union's appeal in October 2022. Indonesia lost the case for violating international free trade agreements, including Article XI:1 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994.

This GATT article states that WTO member countries may only restrict duties, taxes, or other levies, but are prohibited from imposing quota restrictions or export and import licensing.

Despite losing the case, the Indonesian government plans to appeal the nickel issue to the WTO. President Jokowi even announced that he would close the export tap for other mineral commodities.