Supply Increases, Global Oil Prices Drop in Q3 2025

Adi Ahdiat 06/10/2025 11:04 WIB

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According to World Bank data, the average global crude oil price softened in the third quarter of 2025. The downward trend in prices is expected to continue, due to the abundant oil supply from OPEC+.

Monthly Average Global Oil Price (January 2021-September 2025)*

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Monthly Average Global Oil Price (January 2021-September 2025)*

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According to World Bank data, average global oil prices declined in the third quarter, or July-September 2025.

As of September 2025, the average prices for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai crude oil stood at US$66.46 per barrel.

This price was down 0.4% compared to the previous month and 8.2% lower than September last year.

Previously, average global oil prices had dropped to US$62.75 per barrel in May 2025, the lowest level in the last four years.

However, in June 2025, prices surged after the United States (US) attacked Iran's nuclear facilities.

Subsequently, from August to September 2025, prices fell again, coinciding with the de-escalation of open conflict between the US and Iran, as well as an increase in oil production from member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the abundant oil supply from OPEC+ will drive down prices until early next year.

"We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day (b/d) from 3Q25 through 1Q26," the EIA stated in its September 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

"We expect low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026," they said.

Editor : Adi Ahdiat

"Disclosure: This is an AI-generated translation of the original article. We strive for accuracy, but please note that automated translations may contain errors or slight inconsistencies."